Economics
Economist Behind Popular Recession Gauge Worries She Created a ‘Monster’
Claudia Sahm thinks her eponymous rule may fail this time, meaning the US may dodge a downturn even if unemployment goes up modestly.
Sahm
Photographer: Jared Soares
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In 2019, while working as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve, Claudia Sahm published a measure to show when the US has fallen into a recession.
What came to be known as the Sahm Rule is elegant in its simplicity and has been praised for its accuracy by the likes of Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.