Bonds

Private Credit, Fed Put Are Crushing Junk Spreads, Marty Fridson Says

  • Risks of debt default and bond losses remain the same
  • High-yield risk premia seen hitting 1,000 bps in recession

Martin Fridson

Photographer: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg

The private debt boom, central bank support, high Treasury yields and investor base changes are keeping credit spreads artificially tight, according to junk bond guru Marty Fridson.

But the likelihood of losing money in corporate debt hasn’t diminished, Fridson, whose debt analysis has been studied by Wall Street for decades, wrote in a report Thursday. That leaves the market vulnerable to significant repricing in the event of an economic downturn.