September Is Usually the Weakest Month for Stocks
“We’re in a very dangerous spot.”
Wall Street is once again riding high after the S&P 500 crossed the 6,500 mark for the first time. For anyone thinking of piling into the rally, it’s worth considering September’s rocky reputation.
It’s historically been the weakest month for US stocks. The S&P 500 has fallen 56% of the time in September, by an average 1.17%, according to Bank of America’s Paul Ciana, who cited data going back to 1927.
Citadel Securities’ data going back to 2017 showed that after a strong June and July, retail buying activity starts to slacken in August, while September typically marks the year’s low point for retail participation.
There’s plenty of events that could turn the markets narrative upside down. There’s US payrolls data next week, plus inflation the following week. The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates when it meets around the middle of the month, with swaps currently showing an 80% chance of a cut.